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by TFIR
Cleveland Guardians 2024 Rule 5 Protection Primer
Who will Cleveland protect for today's 40 man Rule 5 Protection deadline?
Justin Lada
Nov 19
Over the last couple of years, Cleveland has run into some interesting decisions to make to add to its 40 man roster in protecting prospects from the Rule 5 draft. However, in each of the past few years, the Guardians roster crunch has sort of come back to earth.
In some ways, they’ve had some developmental wins as this year would have been the year that Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams would have been Rule 5 eligible. Instead they were both pitching in playoff games for the Guardians. Logan Allen would have been eligible last winter but he was one of the bright spots on the 2023 pitching staff, though he has some ways to claw back trust in 2025. Cleveland also had to add Daniel Espino through his issues with shoulder troubles so no team could select him and stash him on the injured list.
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In 2022, they had a big chunk to add, choosing to protect Joey Cantillo, Angel Martinez, and Tim Herrin. Bo Naylor was added in September that year, ahead of when he would have needed protection, along with Johnathan Rodriguez needing to be added would have been a minor league free agent. That year they did lose Kevin Kelly to the Rays in the Rule 5 draft, who deserved protecting.
2021 was the big roster crunch year due to issues from the 2020 lost minor league season due to the pandemic. That year, Cleveland added Bryan Lavastida, Brayan Rocchio, Cody Morris, Richie Palacios, George Valera, Jhonkensy Noel, Steven Kwan, Tyler Freeman and Konnor Pilkington. They also chose to trade for Tobias Myers that November, who also needed Rule 5 protection.
This year, the 40 man candidates that will need to be added today are much fewer. WIlliams and Bibee were already on the 40, so that would have been two spots had their development taken longer.
No Doubt Adds
RP Franco Aleman: He would have likely already be on the roster and made his major league debut in 2024 if not for a lat injury that kept him out all of June and July. Aleman is a slam dunk add because of his 95-97 fastball/sinker combination. Both are elite pitches with the four seamer getting a lot of ride and plays above its velocity due to Aleman’s extension. The sinker bores in on right handers and away from lefties at a high velocity, making it tough to square. Aleman’s slider is just above average with a little more vertical break to it. On it’s own it’s not a good pitch but does bride nicely between his fastballs. Aleman has a big leg kick and long arm swing, so holding runners and fielding his position are where his development still needs to come from. Cleveland has also said they would like him to work on his availability more, being available less often in the minors in 2022, sometimes only pitching twice in a five or six game span as a reliever. Still, he’s a setup relief candidate with high-octane heat and an intimidating presence on the mound that would get snagged.
On the Bubble
LHP Ryan Webb: I think Webb is the next most likely candidate to be added. He’s a little older and does have some starter like stuff, though his durability and lighter fastball are question marks. But some team would maybe like to take a chance on Webb and he could serve as important depth for the Guardians in 2025. Still, they might need a roster spot to add him and he is still does have fringe-starter qualities
LHP Doug Nikhazy: Nikhazy should be neck-and-neck with Webb to be added to the roster, but control is still a bit of an issue. His delivery changes helped some this year and he did add some to the bottom line of his heat. He’d also make an interesting reliever where his fastball could tick up. Does Cleveland want to risk that? Is Allen/Webb/Cantillo/Messick/Peterson more than enough in 2025 as pitching depth or do they need Nikhazy in that mix? He would go to the bullpen as a Rule 5 pick, I think. And that might be his best role going forward, but I still think he’s on the bubble here at best.
Left Out
RHP Allan Hernandez: Was the Captains’ closer and pitched well in the Arizona Fall League. Has a high 90s, high-spin fastball but I don’t think he’s quite advanced enough to stick in the majors eve in the bullpen quite yet.
LHP Will Dion: His light fastball didn’t play at Triple-A. Maybe it was getting used to a different ball and 2025 will be better, but I can’t see Cleveland clearing a spot for Dion above everyone above and I don’t see anyone taking him in the Rule 5.
RHP Aaron Davenport: Davenport pitched exclusively out of the stretch this year and it did improve his control some, but like Dion, the fastball is too light and it’s hard to see them making a spot for him on the roster this year. I wouldn’t be stunned if he was taken in the Rule 5 and be used as a relief/bulk innings guy, but I think that would be a stretch and it depends on who else is available.
RHP Tommy Mace: Mace also has a light fastball and either works better in a relief role, which could make him attractive to a team in the Rule 5, but he hasn’t made enough progress to be added above the aforementioned group.
RHP Trenton Denholm: Out of this entire group, I like Denholm the most. His fastball has some carry and would play better in the pen, but he has a good curve and change, but it just smaller in stature, so I think that hinders his overall upside. Another guy i wouldn’t be shocked by being taken, but it's hard to believe Cleveland can find room for him right now.
RHP Alaska Abney: He’s got his fans with his unique metrics thanks to his release point, but I just don’t see the overall stuff being worth protecting at this time. He’s not going to help this bullpen. Maybe the Guardians trade him and someone else values him a little more. He might get taken in the Rule 5 but I doubt it since he’s below Triple-A and I don’t see much more than an Adam Cimber type at best here.
OF Petey Halpin: Repeated Double-A in 2024 and had a mixed year at best, finishing on the injured list. He’s tired multiple versions of his stance but hasn’t found consistent power or any kind of offensive upside to get added to the 40 or go in any meaningful trade.
INF Milan Tolentino: Similar to Halpin, a 2020 pick that is glove first and never really got his footing offensively after moving up from Single-A. Could profile as a utility infielder for someone with some pop and ability to walk, but it would be a stretch.
OF Wuilfredo Antunez: Hasn’t been above High-A yet, but has interesting pop and a big arm. I don’t think where he’s at developmentally would allow him to stick in the majors, and he’s healthy, so that would go against it too. But I thought his sleeper skill set was worth mentioning here.
Who’s Out?
Aleman is the only slam dunk of the group this year and I think at least one, if not both Nikhazy and Webb will be added. Currently, the Guardians 40 man roster sits at 39. So that leaves room for Aleman.
How would they make room for either Webb or Nikhazy?
RHP Connor Gillaspie still occupies a roster spot as does RHP Peter Strzelecki. Both did come through with some clutch innings last year but are definitely the 39th and 40th guys on the roster to create two spots.
Other moves
Cleveland loves to make trades on the 40 man protection day (see Tobias Myers, Nolan Jones for Juan Brito, etc). I don’t know who is on the verge of another team’s 40 man roster bubble, but if the Guardians deem that player worth protecting and another team doesn’t feel like they will and want to get something for them or would rather cash in on the value, Cleveland has jumped in there. They have a serious dearth of catching depth in the upper minors, so keep an eye on a 40 man catcher possibly, especially with David Fry’s injury and basically nobody to catch in Triple-A with Kody Huff to start 2025. Starting pitching could always be an option as well as a corner infielder, particularly first base.
"I've suffered a great many tragedies in my life....most of them never happened". Mark Twain