On the Guardians Rule 5 Moves and Eli Morgan Trade
Examining the Guardians Rule 5 moves and wow the Guardians did in the Eli Morgan trade
Justin Lada
Nov 24
It was the most eventful week 2024-2025 offseason for the Cleveland Guardians so far, which is obviously a high bar to clear, competing with the re-signing of Austin Hedges. It might be the most eventful 24 hours the Guardians have all offseason regardless, so let’s break it down, starting with the Guardians Rule 5 additions, a surprising subtraction and the trade for a new prospect.
The Guardians Rule 5 Additions
Adding Franco Aleman was the easiest call in all of this. Relievers are the most selected players in the Rule 5 draft, and a reliever with the high-octane stuff like Aleman would have been one of the first picks off the board, maybe even the first. We wouldn’t even be talking about this in November if Aleman hadn’t suffered a lat strain back in April that knocked him out most of the season. He would have been on the 40 man earlier in the year and probably made his major league debut. Aleman has the stuff that shouldn’t be hard to crack the Guardians talented bullpen, though there are a list of things he needs to work on (availability, holding runners, fielding, control - probably in that order). He should provide nice depth in 2025, giving him time to work on some things in Triple-A and ride the I-71 shuttle a few times, which is incredible depth as Aleman would probably be in the bullpen of most other clubs.
It was the most eventful week 2024-2025 offseason for the Cleveland Guardians so far, which is obviously a high bar to clear, competing with the re-signing of Austin Hedges. It might be the most eventful 24 hours the Guardians have all offseason regardless, so let’s break it down, starting with the Guardians Rule 5 additions, a surprising subtraction and the trade for a new prospect.
The Guardians Rule 5 Additions
Adding Franco Aleman was the easiest call in all of this. Relievers are the most selected players in the Rule 5 draft, and a reliever with the high-octane stuff like Aleman would have been one of the first picks off the board, maybe even the first. We wouldn’t even be talking about this in November if Aleman hadn’t suffered a lat strain back in April that knocked him out most of the season. He would have been on the 40 man earlier in the year and probably made his major league debut. Aleman has the stuff that shouldn’t be hard to crack the Guardians talented bullpen, though there are a list of things he needs to work on (availability, holding runners, fielding, control - probably in that order). He should provide nice depth in 2025, giving him time to work on some things in Triple-A and ride the I-71 shuttle a few times, which is incredible depth as Aleman would probably be in the bullpen of most other clubs.
I was on the fence between Doug Nikhazy and Ryan Webb both getting added to the 40 man roster. I assumed one or the other would make it with a chance either would go in the Rule 5 draft. Nikhazy made some necessary changes to his delivery in 2024 which probably should have come sooner. That he finally came around on them and they saw positive results worked in his favor here. He found some new velocity this year, though he still needs to sustain it more consistently, which is something that hasn’t happened for Webb. His fastball was waning late 2024, down to 88-91, down from 90-93, 94, to go along with some unfortunate metrics. Nikhazy might have not a pitch as good as Webb’s changeup/curve now, but he has better fastball metrics, more velo, a better track record of health and maybe more average stuff across the board. I think Nikhazy would have been easy to carry on a 26 man roster all season, which is more the reason to add. Webb could be in the same situation, where he might regain some velocity in the bullpen. I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s taken, but I don’t think it’s a guarantee given his stature and velo. For now, Nikhazy has a chance to serve as valuable depth in Triple-A with the possibility of one of Joey Cantillo or Logan Allen pitching there along with names Will Dion (who I don’t think will hear his name called in December) and probably Austin Peterson, along with possibly Webb. Cleveland might also look to improve major league pitching, so a better year of health on that staff leaves some pressure off Nikhazy to jump into two years with his mechanical changes to take root and develop further, though he is 25.
The next two additions caught me off guard (no pun intended). Following the Guardians usual MO, I’m usually pretty good at guessing where this will go, even beyond the no-brainers. I had guessed Joey Cantillo, Tim Herrin and Cade Smith, and that Nic Enright and Kevin Kelly would get taken in the Rule 5 draft in 2022 if left off.
I didn’t not foresee adding Enright at this stage of his career, turning 28 in January and missing much of 2024 with a shoulder strain. That being said, Enright was off to a great start in 2024. Early in the year, his fastball saw a little bump to 93-95, up from about a 90-94 mark. And his fastball has tons of carry up in the zone, so it often plays above its velocity there. He also brings a high spin slider with plenty of depth and does have a useable changeup. Enright used to have a big, power curve that he hasn’t thrown as much in recent years but I thought was a strong offering. Had he been healthy in 2024, I think there’s a good chance he was also already on the 40 and made his pro debut. Enright has always has above average control and plenty of extension due to a big, lanky frame.
Having a feel for who in your organization would be selected is part of the calculus in all of this. That was why I was not considering Petey Halpin at all here. But, there are defensive tools to consider here. He should be able to play all three outfield spots and has the arm to play in right field. He made some small gains last year getting the ball in the air (42% up from almost 39% in 2023) and pull side (41% up from 38%) thanks to some swing changes, which seemed to be ongoing the last couple of seasons. He did run the highest ISO (slugging percentage-batting average = isolated power) (.166) in his second year in Double-A, playing in a pitcher friendly park and league (unless you play for Reading). Strikeouts and contact are still an issue for Halpin, but he did walk enough to make you think that might translate (walk rates are becoming increasingly unstable translation wise through levels thanks to the ABS in Triple-A and the minor/major league pitching gap). It’s not that hard to hide a defensive/speed first outfielder on a bench. I felt like the odds of Halpin being selected were still pretty low, but this is a spot where you either have to trust the Guardians feelers for interest in Halpin in the draft, or look back at a waste of a roster spot. His upside still looks like a fourth outfield type, but I suppose that is the type that also gets taken in the Rule 5 draft. Does adding Halpin also give Cleveland some motivation to move on from some upper level players that aren’t working out (George Valera for one, which I’ll get to, Will Brennan or Johnathan Rodriguez, or somehow maybe even Myles Straw?). There may also be a piece of the signing bonus in there, guarding (again, no pun intended) a $1.525M bonus from 2020, a class right now Cleveland is getting almost nothing from (Carson Tucker is out of baseball, Tanner Burns has stalled and Logan Allen is trying to put the pieces back together after 2024).
A few things should have made me see Enright could be added. In addition to the fact that he would have probably been up this year had he been healthier, he has been selected before and I think other teams would have seen that and he would have been selected again.. Second, there was always a chance Cleveland was going to trade from its bullpen depth to make some moves this winter. Adding Enright made it easier to do so, as now they have a controllable, cheap, optionable depth that throws strikes. They really didn’t have that kind of option in 2024 once Enright and Aleman went down, while they were waiting for Andrew Walters to go through his first pro season. They’ll really need both to be healthy in 2025 in order to realize the advantages of their depth, but you don’t really have that option to bet against when it comes to the Rule 5 because other teams look for players they can stash on injured lists anyway. It’s an even better story that Enright is going to be 28 and previously beat Hodgkins Lymphoma in 2022, shortly after being selected, but it derailed his chances of sticking with Miami. As a former 20th round pick, this is true perseverance and a big deal for this career.
Guardians 40 Man Subtractions
No real surprise that Peter Strzelecki and Connor Gillaspie’s roster spots were used to open room to add others, especially when the other two were Aleman and Enright. Strzelecki was out of options and Gillaspie was a minor league rule 5 pick, so kudos to him for cracking the big leagues anyway. But would Gillaspie and Strzelecki have been needed last year if Aleman and Enright been healthy and available? I expect Gillaspie to clear waivers and Strzelecki to become a free agent, and not having options made him expendable. The only question was how much Cleveland valued having roster fodder (i.e., extra bodies on the 40 you felt like you could move on from in the event of another move.)
Like the Halpin and Enright moves, I did not see Valera being designated for assignment. He is getting a fourth option year due to all the time missed due to injuries, though he wasn’t going to be ready until possibly midway into next season. But they paid him $1.3 million as part of a big international signing class (along with Aaron Bracho, who is now gone, Brayan Rocchio, Alexfri Planez, and Jhonkensy Noel, though Noel was a low money signing) that has not panned out either. Valera has dealt with multiple wrist injuries, hamstring injuries, an abdominal injury and now a torn patellar tendon. Availability is the most important ability. Valera has only played over 100 games once in his six year career (not counting 2020). He had power, a good idea of the zone and a good arm from right field, but there were more swing and miss issues than most reports were suggesting early in his career, often falling for the aesthetically pleasing swing and not acknowledging a hole at the top of the zone due to a grooved swing. But ultimately, it was the injuries. He hadn’t progressed on the field and when injuries mount, it can be hard to maintain past athleticism and abilities you once had. Though there is a possibility that Valera could be traded now, don’t be surprised if he clears waivers, because a team that would try to claim him wouldn’t be able to protect him from the Rule 5 draft and because of his injury status, he’d be an easy pick to stash on the injured list, which is appealing as a former top prospect. That and the injury status now probably make him an unattractive DFA claim and trade candidate. I’m not saying he won’t be traded but I think it’s just as likely he just clears waivers and winds up back in the minors with Cleveland.
Thanks, Eli, Welcome Alfonsin Rosario
There was always a chance that Cleveland was going to trade a reliever this offseason, we just didn’t know who and for what. This may not be the only relief trade they make this offseason, but it’s definitely an interesting one.
Morgan was an expendable piece of a deep bullpen and the Guardians probably could have brought back a big leaguer or a player closer to the majors, but it would have likely been a player with low upside and impact. Essentially another Eli Morgan. Instead, they chose to cash in on an expendable player’s value at his peak and did something the organization doesn’t often do, go for upside. Cleveland will swing for upside in the first round of the draft, but often look for safety down the board (though the high school pitching drafted in 2024 is a little bit of a diverging path) and they do the same in international classes. So in a lot of ways, Rosario isn’t a player they’d normally draft.
The Guardians were reportedly talking to the Cubs about trades, quite possibly involving a reliever, for a solid six months or longer. Multiple versions of a trade were probably discussed, and Morgan was probably shopped to multiple teams.
So, why did the Guardians land on Rosario?
Cleveland took a gamble on some big tools here that they don’t really have in their system. A young, athletic outfielder with present power, some speed and the arm to play right field. It’s a big risk and this trade might bear nothing for the Guardians and the Cubs get a solid, controllable middle reliever out of it. That shouldn’t be that costly for the Guardians if Rosario doesn’t work out, because the odds are greater that his swing and miss issues make it difficult for him to get enough of his power to get past Double-A, than becoming a star or anything usable at the big level. He does a good job hitting the ball out front and gets to his power when he makes contact with a mistake. Cleveland needs guys who can punish mistakes, not just hit them for singles, though they need it at the big league level now, not at High-A.
Rosario isn’t a chaser, staying in the zone enough for his age/level. But his bat path is very grooved and you don’t see a lot of barrel adjustability here to really take advantage of his big power unless someone misses right into the path of his barrel, which is very vertical, but lacks the ability to get to anything else even in the zone, which is why he has so much swing and miss despite not being a big chaser. Maybe Cleveland thinks he’s athletic enough to make some adjustments with health, but this was an issue for him going back to high school.
He’s more likely a corner than a centerfielder, but shouldn’t be an awful defender with time. He’s got below average speed on the bases but enough to work in right field. In high school, Rosario was a pitcher that had a fastball in the upper 90s. He also has athletic bloodlines, the younger brother of Padres OF Eguy Rosario and is related to former Cleveland slugger Franmil Reyes, and Diamondbacks MVP candidate Ketel Marte as native of the Dominican and is bi-lingual. He also gets high marks for character, which we know Cleveland has been more stringent about in recent years.
But for Cleveland, it shows a willingness to take a different method into taking a gamble on high-risk, high-reward, which is something they aren’t doing in other avenues of player acquisition very often.
And it may not just be about if Rosario pans out into anything for the Guardians specifically, but as we saw last season, high-upside high school talents hold their value longer, meaning they hold trade value. So Cleveland may also have the opportunity to flip a high-value asset in a trade for major league talent soon, because outside of the high school pitchers they took in the 2024 draft class, that’s also the kind of talent they don’t have much of in the system either, and it’s one other teams may value in trades. Which is why this low risk gamble moving a middle reliever for a player who could have high upside or carry trade good trade value in the coming year or so makes a ton of sense rather than flipping Morgan for a low-impact high minors player or major league bench player. They have enough of those and it’s about time they did something different.
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